Azerbaijan is using reconstruction and gas deals in Syria to expand its influence and position itself as a potential mediator among regional rivals.
Opinion4- Page
Energy interconnectivity is increasingly shaping geopolitical landscapes in ways that conventional diplomacy often cannot. Nowhere is this more evident than in the evolving relationships among the middle powers of Eurasia.
Perhaps the most widely discussed event in the region and beyond today is the upcoming visit of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to Yerevan and Baku.
The United States’ decision to broker a transit corridor between Armenia and Azerbaijan may appear, at first glance, as a narrow regional intervention. In fact, it offers a revealing window into the logic that came to define Trump-era diplomacy.
The Trump administration has made no secret of the fact that it sees stability and security in the Western Hemisphere as a priority. This emphasis has been outlined in multiple strategic documents, including the most recent National Security Strategy.
By restoring its territorial integrity and bringing alleged war criminals before the courts, Azerbaijan has pursued a rare post-conflict path that links sovereignty with legal accountability.
Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic is—with Baku’s approval—moving to drop references in its constitution to the 1921 Moscow and Kars treaties, which made Moscow and Ankara guarantors of the non-contiguous Azerbaijani territory.
Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia persist, and this despite the tacit rapprochement that materialized as a result of the meeting between the presidents of the two countries in October in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.
There is a harsh phrase in the theatrical world: the most pitiful sight is that of aging actors who have already left the stage. They still consider themselves leading stars, yet in reality they are capable only of creating a crowd in the theater foyer.
Among the recent developments, the visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the United Arab Emirates stands out as particularly significant. Although formally designated as a working visit, in substance it went far beyond a routine protocol event and was rich in political, economic, and military-strategic meaning.
Against the backdrop of rising tensions around Iran, undesirable scenarios that could materialize in the event of a large-scale war initiated by the United States are being discussed with increasing frequency.
Even historians today struggle to pinpoint who first injected the punchy phrase “If they’re afraid, it means they respect you” into the Russian political lexicon. Yet Moscow has built—and continues to build—its influence across the post-Soviet space almost exclusively on fear.
A confidential analytical report has leaked into the public domain, outlining Moscow’s intention to build systematic efforts to construct social and political groups loyal to the Kremlin among the Russian-speaking populations of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia.
In the shifting landscape of the South Caucasus, one development is as profound as it is underrated: Azerbaijan’s emergence from three decades of conflict with Armenia not merely as a victor, but as a strategic partner looking west.
Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, while in Strasbourg, stated that certain functions of border management could be transferred to the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA). “We also understand that time has passed, and now we do have peace.
The prospect of integrating the energy systems of Azerbaijan and Armenia has triggered a stormy — even hysterical — reaction in Yerevan.
For decades, Armenia’s energy system evolved under conditions of strong structural dependence on Russia.
In Astana, another statement has been made regarding the investigation into the crash of an AZAL flight that was shot down by Russian air defense near the city of Grozny.
The Davos forum marked a new stage in relations between Azerbaijan and the United States. President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev took part in the ceremonial signing of the Charter of the “Peace Council,” established on the initiative of U.S. President Donald Trump.
The key reason for the “negative reflection” in dynamics lies on the surface — a decline in oil production. Despite consistent statements about economic diversification, dependence on the hydrocarbon sector remains system-forming.
The invitation for Azerbaijan to join the Peace Council as a founding state has become a sign of shifting power dynamics in international diplomacy surrounding security initiatives and conflict resolution.
The geography of the South Caucasus is such that the potential for conflict is assessed as very high. Our region is a frontier—no matter how you look at it.
The international community is watching developments in Azerbaijan with keen interest, analysing nearly every detail in relation to the country and President Ilham Aliyev’s foreign policy.
Along the way, the country faced unprecedented pressure from forces seeking to stir revanchist sentiments in Armenia and provoke new tensions in the South Caucasus—challenges that required the leadership of a determined and politically strong figure. President Ilham Aliyev rose to this task with remarkable skill.